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| "Argo" and "The Master" look like the top two contenders as of now. |
To start off, something I've been eager to write about- my 2013 Best Picture Oscar predictions. These should be taken with a grain of salt, given there are still many films yet to come, but with the reviews from Toronto Film Festival in, I'm able to add ("The Impossible," 'Silver Linings Playbook") and eliminate ("The Perks of Being a Wallflower," "Anna Karenina," "Cloud Atlas") movies from my list of potential winners.
Top Five:
1. Argo- A lot of people gave this spot to "The Master," but I disagree. "The Master" isn't necessarily mainstream, and "Argo" is much more accessible (And it helps that it's based on a true, fairly recent event). A lot of people disliked "The Master" also, and a lot of September movies are forgotten by the time the Academy votes, so "Argo" is starting to look like the most obvious Academy-pleaser.
2. The Master- That's not to say "The Master" can't win. Paul Thomas Anderson's previous film "There Will Be Blood" was infamously snubbed in 2008, and the Academy may want to honor him. This movie appears to have a lock on Best Actor and Supporting Actor, which will help.
3. Lincoln- I can't say I really want this on my list, but it's sort of hard to exclude it. "Lincoln" is the most obvious Oscar contender. An Abraham Lincoln biography starring Daniel Day-Lewis, and directed by Steven Spielberg just screams give me an award. I have a gut feeling this is going to end up like what "The Iron Lady" and "J. Edgar" were last year- movies where they find a historical figure that looks a lot like a good actor and then make the Academy give them an award. And then come up with the story. "Lincoln" will probably end up as the type of movie they show in history class when the teacher's absent. But given the cast and crew, I have to put it in my list.
4. Life of Pi- "Life of Pi" reminds me a lot of "Hugo." Both beautifully made movies by high-profile directors that dominate in all the technical categories. Best Picture isn't too far out of reach either given the praise this got at CinemaCon, and Ang Lee's potential.
5. Silver Linings Playbook- There should always be a comedic, much lighter movie in the awards slate. "Silver Linings Playbook" seems like the most likely comedy to get nominated, and with acting nominations looking probable, it's easy to see this getting recognition.
If there's a sixth:
6. Flight- Now that Robert Zemeckis has finally stopped doing what nobody asked for, we get a live-action, compelling drama about a pilot originally called a hero after he saves a plain from crashing but everything falls apart when they find out he had been drinking prior to the event. The trailer was excellent, and while I have nothing to back this up, the movie looks excellent too.
If there's a seventh:
7. Les Miserables- An extremely popular musical adaptation directed by Tom Hooper is obviously a contender just for that reason, but we have to remember musicals rarely ever win Best Picture.
Eighth:
8. The Impossible- This is a lot like "127 Hours," (My favorite movie of 2010) because it's a movie that gives the audience what they want. It's going to inspire a lot of people and there will definitely be tears exiting the theater, so it will be hard for Academy members to resist.
Ninth and tenth:
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild- This Sundance Film Festival hit received massive critical acclaim and will most likely get nominated if it isn't forgotten and there aren't too many incredible films this fall/winter.
10. Looper- This year's "Inception" wasn't originally an Oscar contender but given it is now getting called a "classic," it's not hard to see "Looper" get a nomination at this point.
Also don't forget: "Amour," "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "The Sessions," "Zero Dark Thirty"
Possible but unlikely: "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," "Moonrise Kingdom"
No longer a contender: "Anna Karenina," "Cloud Atlas," "Hyde Park on Hudson," "The Perks of Being a Wallflower," "To the Wonder"
